I guess what is most disappointing to me is that I have to call out someone a SECOND time on this blog.  Jack Gold of J. Gold & Associates just penned an article for Business Week where he basically suggests Windows Mobile is dead.  And by suggest I mean:

"I expect Microsoft to [...] exit the mobile operating system market within the next two years."

G*d help us.  This is the same kind of bombastic commentary he made when he predicted in February that Symbian and Android would merge within 3-6 months.  Now in fairness, and for the record, he's got a few days left for that prediction to be correct.

Let's go through some of the key points:

"...it hasn't kept pace with the rate of developments in the smartphone market, such as touchscreens and a wide variety of compelling applications."

Uhm, does Jack not realize that Windows Mobile has had touchscreen capabilities for YEARS?  Look at all the applications that use the touchscreen in a field service solution.  Hell, one of the big gripes with the OS is that it needs a stylus vs. being finger friendly.  Now that's being addressed with 6.5

No compelling applications?  If you mean there is no iFart, OK.  I think the world can live without that.  No Facebook?  Well that's coming .  So, I'll agree that there has been limited hype and awareness of consumer applications for Windows Mobile, but don't tell Antenna, Pyxis, Spring or Vaultus (among others) that there are not any compelling applications.  Here's a list for you Jack of compelling applications.

"I expect Microsoft to [...] exit the mobile operating system market within the next two years."

OK.  Time line check in 5,4,3,2...  Two years will be August 2011.  Right now, Windows Mobile 6.5 will (hopefully) be coming out in a couple of months.  That means devices will be shipping starting around Christmas.  Then, Windows Mobile 7 will be coming out around the middle of 2010.  Let's go devil's advocate and say it's delayed, so that it's in Q3.  The aircraft carrier USS Microsoft will take time to ramp up and be full steam ahead in the marketing.  That brings US to the end of 2010 just to get all the marketing going.  So right when they start (hopefully) gaining momentum, they are going to stop everything and say to hell with it?  Come on, Jack!  You are smarter than this - I know this, because we have met and chatted in detail.

"Microsoft is also losing the support of many of its leading device makers. Taiwanese hardware maker HTC, the largest supplier of Windows Mobile smartphones, is making a major commitment to Android. So is Motorola."

What does this have to do with the price of tea in China?  There's no question that these companies are branching out and seeing opportunities with Android.  But just because they are doing something new doesn't mean they are dropping their support for Windows Mobile.  Would these companies want to give up revenue opportunities to Samsung and Palm (I'm talking Treo Pro)?

"And Hewlett-Packard's Windows-powered handhelds haven't had much impact."

And this is whose fault?

"...the smartphone market has largely passed Microsoft by. In the past, many companies designated Window Mobile as the only officially sanctioned operating system that could connect to their networks. Fewer companies now do this. Many realize they must support the platforms that users demand."

So, I am not going to disagree with you that Microsoft is facing an uphill battle with Windows Mobile.  However, the consumerization of enterprise mobility has NOTHING to do with Microsoft's misteps in mobility (and there have been many).  The iPhone was THE catalyst for this.  BlackBerry became popular because of the push email.  RIM, by the way is also facing its own challenges, my friend.  Why?  Because so much of the smartphone mindshare is being taken by Apple and Android.  Palm is even making some buzz these days with webOS (not WebOS, Jack).

"The most important part of Microsoft's mobile strategy should be based on enhancing ActiveSync to its strategic advantage by ensuring that the greatest potential number of phones work with the software."

OK - not disagreeing with you that ActiveSync can be a strategic advantage for Microsoft. In fact, Microsoft has done a great job on that front in terms of making ActiveSync a mobility standard.  But hear me out Jack.  If you believe any of the following:

• More and more people are going to be using mobile devices
• More and more people are going to be using smartphones
• More and more people are going to be using smartphones for work stuff
• Smartphones may become a platform for doing some work tasks (in lieu of a laptop)

...then you honestly believe Microsoft isn't going to want to have a play in THAT market?  There is no way in hell Microsoft is going to be giving up on this space.

Now again, do not come away from this rant thinking I am a WinMo zealot.  Quite the contrary, I think Microsoft has a lot of things it needs to do to get (enterprise) mobility right.  It's losing mind share and while the hardware on the latest devices is quite nice (go HTC!), the OS does feel dated - no question.  Hell, there are even UI questions I have on 6.5 - why a visible scroll bar when you are going to use your finger to go down?

Regardless, the first step (and MSFT knows this!) is a great OS and user experience.  They are well behind Apple and Palm.  I'm not one for the other platforms from a user interface perspective, but that's just me.  BlackBerry is also kicking butt and taking names in the enterprise (and consumer) space.  Like I said earlier, they have their issues too.  But Microsoft knows it needs to catch up - the question remains how they plan on doing that.  I haven't seen anything re: Windows Mobile 7, but I suspect there are a lot of Microsoft employees out there thinking about how they can get back in the game (unfortunately though, some think nothing's wrong either).

Regardless, Jack, please put down the pipe!  You are smarter than this.  Even if you are just doing this to stir up the pot and get people going, there are better ways to do it.  At the very least, can you hook me up with your Business Week contacts? ;-)